Free calculator
Risk score and expected monetary value (EMV) calculator
Rate a risk for probability and impact on a five by five matrix, then put a percentage, a cost and a delay on it. You get the score, its band, and the expected cost and delay.
Calculator
The formulas
| Score = P × I | probability rating times impact rating, from 1 to 25 |
|---|---|
| EMV = p × cost | probability (as a fraction) times the cost if the risk happens |
| Delay = p × days | probability times the delay if the risk happens |
For an opportunity, enter the saving as the cost and read the EMV as a gain. Add the EMV of every open risk to get a first estimate of the contingency a project needs.
Worked example
A supplier may deliver the switchgear late. The team rates it likely (4) with a major impact (4), so the score is 4 × 4 = 16, in the high band: it needs an owner and a response.
They put the chance at 30%, the cost at 200,000 and the delay at 20 days. The EMV is 0.30 × 200,000 = 60,000 and the expected delay is 0.30 × 20 = 6 days. Spending 25,000 on a second supplier that halves the chance is worth doing, because it removes 30,000 of expected cost.
The project risk management guide covers the whole process, from identifying risks to closing them.
Common questions
Is a 5×5 matrix enough?
It is enough to rank risks and decide which need a response. It does not tell you what the risks do to the finish date; for that you need a schedule risk analysis.
What is EMV used for?
To compare risks in money, to judge whether a response is worth its cost, and to size a contingency reserve.
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Free during our launch until 31 March 2027.
