Risk and Monte Carlo

Watch a simulation fill up

Two thousand possible futures for a five-activity path, with one risk event. The histogram is where the finish could land; P80 is the date you can promise with more confidence.

Iterations0

P50—

P80—

Method: 2,000 iterations, seed 42, triangular durations on five linked activities plus one risk event (30% chance, 5 to 20 days). Run in your browser.

1211212311124321

Probability ↑Impact → Score 15 or more

See exposure at a glance

Probability against impact on a five by five grid. Click a cell in the app to see the risks inside it; anything scoring 15 or more asks for an owner and a response.

A register people keep up to date

List, board by status and a clickable five by five matrix, with owners, responses and due dates.

Threats and opportunities

Probability, impact, schedule days and cost ranges, with the expected monetary value calculated for you.

Monte Carlo on the real schedule

Triangular or PERT durations, risk events on activities, Latin Hypercube sampling and a fixed seed.

Drivers, not just dates

Criticality and a sensitivity tornado show which activities and risks move the finish most.

Delivery confidence

The probability each project lands on its committed date and budget, across the portfolio.

Change control

Raise, submit and decide change requests with the impact on budget and date shown before approval.

Questions

Why a fixed seed?

So the same inputs always give the same answer. You can explain a change in P80 by what changed in the plan, not by chance.

Is the risk matrix configurable?

The five by five scoring is standard today; per-company scales are planned.

See every feature

Bring one schedule. See your critical path in an hour.

Free during our launch until 31 March 2027.

Start free Book a demo

Give your sponsor a date with a confidence level